After a fairly mild hurricane season last year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted this hurricane season will be near-normal. The forecasters at NOAA anticipate somewhere between 12 and 17 name storms this season. Five to nine of these storms are projected to develop into hurricanes, including one to four major hurricanes. Major hurricanes are classified as category 3 or above, with winds above 111 miles per hour.

According to NOAA, an average hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major storms.

Despite these predictions, there is no way to say for certain how active this season will be. From the months of June to November, it is important to stay informed and be prepared. It only takes one storm to make hurricane season active. There is no guarantee on when these storms may develop or where they will make landfall.

Here are a few helpful tips and tricks to stayed prepared this hurricane season:

• Develop an emergency plan for your family

• Create a list of emergency contacts

• Know your evacuation route

• Place important documents in a weather proof place

• Secure outdoor items

• Prepare an emergency kit

El Nino the Cause for a Potentially Calm Storm Season

This year’s hurricane predictions are harder to predict due to conflicting weather events. This season has the potential to be calm or active. La Nina has contributed to increased activity throughout the past three years. However, there is potential to transition from La Nina to El Nino this summer.

Historically, when the climate pattern transitions from a state of La Nina to El Nino, calmer weather typically follows. Contrary to these conditions, there is also potential for an above-average west African monsoon, which creates warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea. With these conditions, there is more energy to fuel storm development.

Throughout the summer, NOAA will be implementing upgrades to the forecast models currently used. These upgrades are intended to create more accurate forecasting. Their new Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) will become operational in late June. HAFS has been shown 10-15% more accurate when it comes to track forecasts, when compared to current operational models. HAFS will be used with the current models for this season but will eventually replace these models.

Written by Parker Lee, SPEC's Public Relation Intern